BUSINESS CYCLE: The business cycle is the fluctuation in economic activity that an economy experiences over a period of time. A business cycle is basically defined in terms of periods of expansion or recession. During expansions, the economy is growing in real terms (i.e. excluding inflation), as evidenced by increases in indicators like employment, industrial production, sales and personal incomes. During recessions, the economy is contracting, as measured by decreases in the above indicators. Expansion is measured from the trough (or bottom) of the previous business cycle to the peak of the current cycle, while recession is measured from the peak to the trough. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determines the official dates for business cycles.
SECTOR ROTATION: Sector rotation is the action of a mutual fund or portfolio manager of shifting investment assets from one sector of the economy to another. Sector rotation involves the sale of securities related to a particular investment sector and using the funds garnered from that sale to purchase securities in another sector. This strategy is most often used as a method of diversifying holdings over a specified holding period. Since not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time, managers aim to gain exposure to multiple sectors through sector rotation. Additionally a portfolio manager may attempt to profit through timing a particular economic cycle and exiting a sector as it begins to struggle while entering another on the rise. Issues related to constantly rotating in and out of sectors are the trading fees and commissions associated with such a strategy.
LIBOR: ICE LIBOR is a benchmark rate that some of the world’s leading banks charge each other for short-term loans.
FED BALANCE SHEET: A breakdown of the assets and liabilities held by the Federal Reserve. This report essentially outlines the factors that affect both the supply and the absorption of Federal Reserve funds. The Fed balance sheet report reveals the means the Fed uses to inject cash into the economy and is formally known as the Factors Affecting Reserve Balances Report.
FED FUNDS RATE: The interest rate at which a depository institution lends funds maintained at the Federal Reserve to another depository institution overnight. The federal funds rate is generally only applicable to the most creditworthy institutions when they borrow and lend overnight funds to each other. The federal funds rate is one of the most influential interest rates in the U.S. economy, since it affects monetary and financial conditions, which in turn have a bearing on key aspects of the broad economy including employment, growth and inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the Federal Reserve’s primary monetary policy making body, telegraphs its desired target for the federal funds rate through open market operations. Also known as the “fed funds rate”.
CREDIT CYCLE: A credit cycle is a cycle involving the access to credit by borrowers. Credit cycles first go through periods in which funds are easy to borrow; these periods are characterized by lower interest rates, lowered lending requirements and an increase in the amount of available credit. These periods are followed by a contraction in the availability of funds. During the contraction period, interest rates climb and lending rules become more strict, meaning that less people can borrow. The contraction period continues until risks are reduced for the lending institutions, at which point the cycle starts again.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK: The central bank of the United States and the most powerful financial institution in the world. The Federal Reserve Bank was founded by the U.S. Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safe, flexible and stable monetary and financial system. It is based on a federal system that comprises a central governmental agency (the Board of Governors) in Washington, DC and 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks that are each responsible for a specific geographic area of the U.S. The Federal Reserve Bank is considered to be independent because its decisions do not have to be ratified by the President or any other government official. However, it is still subject to Congressional oversight and must work within the framework of the government’s economic and financial policy objectives. Often known simply as “the Fed”.
CORRELATION: Correlation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management. Correlation is computed into what is known as the correlation coefficient, which has value that must fall between -1 and 1.
YIELD TO MATURITY: Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a bond if the bond is held until the end of its lifetime. Yield to maturity is considered a long-term bond yield, but is expressed as an annual rate. In other words, it is the internal rate of return of an investment in a bond if the investor holds the bond until maturity and if all payments are made as scheduled.
P/E RATIO: The price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. The price-earnings ratio is also sometimes known as the price multiple or the earnings multiple.